In 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, or 2023, the LIRR's East Side Access project will finally be completed. At which point, the LIRR, if they haven't started doing so already, will have to figure out what trains from what places will go to what terminals. I have postulated numerous times over the last year about theories which the LIRR can take in going about doing this, and there are a bunch of ideas, some good and some bad, on how the LIRR's timetables will look after East Side Access.
Each time the LIRR makes a schedule change, they make very tiny tweaks and adjustments to the existing schedules. When funding for a new train becomes available, it is inserted between two existing trains on the schedule. Likewise, when a train is cut, the surrounding trains pick up the stops and see minor time adjustments. Every now and then, the LIRR might slightly adjust train schedules to respond to customer demand (WHEMPMAR13) or if they handover a stretch of track to their freight operator. This way of doing things seems to work for the LIRR in this sense. For the most part, the LIRR's schedules ain't broke (though there are individual troublemakers), so why fix it? As a result of fixing things this way, numerous scheduling oddities have arisen over the past decades (and there is a whole post coming on schedule oddities at some point, so don't worry), of which some are good and others are bad.
But there have been very few points in the LIRR's history where they have completely redone their entire set of timetables. We have seen substantial adjustments in the schedules of trains following the completion of huge landmark projects, and in particular, the expansion of electrification, but those adjustments primarily impacted the one route that was electrified and not necessarily all the existing branches. With this in mind, one could theorize that the LIRR has never once thrown out all of their timetables and started again with a clean slate. Luckily, the LIRR has gotten through most it's major projects well enough to the point where they did not need to do a top-to-bottom overhaul of all of their timetables (like Metro-North had to do for the Bronx Right-of-Way improvement project this past summer/fall).
With that being said, I would definitely think that once ESA hits us the LIRR will have to do just that–throw everything out and start fresh. At least, I hope they will. In reality, stationing a person at HAROLD interlocking (where the trains to NYP and GCT will part ways) and sending every other train into the tunnels to Grand Central will not be a workable solution and they will have to put a little more effort into that.
There have been some that claim that the LIRR will simply take every train that currently goes to Atlantic Terminal in Brooklyn and sent it to Grand Central. Even if that is the case (and I hope it is not since that would leave Grand Central terribly underserved, or very awkwardly served if they try to haphazardly supplement that service with new trains), all of the Brooklyn trains will have to be woven into the Mainline and I imagine that will be easier said and done.
Over the past couple months, I have been working on a project, off and on, that has essentially developed a whole new set of timetables for the LIRR that will include service to Grand Central.
In doing this, I threw out all of the LIRR's current timetables and started with a clean Excel workbook. From there, I set up a new timetable format (that improves on the LIRR's current design which can be confusing). From there I built an entirely new set of service patterns (some that stick to what we see today, some that don't), beginning with weekend service, copying and pasting all of that to the weekday schedule, then went nuts on the peak hour schedules.
Over the next three or so weeks, I will unveil my ideas for what the timetables of each of the LIRR's branches could look like once the ribbon on East Side Access is cut. Tomorrow I will start with the Port Washington Branch and we will work branch by branch in increasing complexity until we get to the crazy Mainline.
Each post will start with some "Key Assumptions" which will lay out some basic things that would have to be in place in order for the schedules to work as well as some "Service Guidelines" which is a basic overview of how off-peak and peak service would be configured.
I must say, working on this project has certainly helped me learn a lot about how the LIRR works. Trying to get trains to squeak in at the peak of peak and mesh together can be very difficult at times, and I will try to make these difficulties known as I go along.
And before I start, I would just like to make clear that none of the schedules I am going to be putting up are official LIRR material. I have not been told what their exact plans are, but I feel these sample timetables I will put out will represent the best use of the infrastructure the LIRR will have available to itself on opening day of East Side Access. Weather or not they agree with what I say will have to be seen (I don't like my chances), but all of my plans will be able to conform to what they have currently planned.
Feel free to comment and question along the way. I will not be able to explain every train in each of the posts, so if something is unclear or you would like to know my reasoning behind sometime, please ask. Additionally, I have made millions of tiny little changes to this Excel spreadsheet so there might be some tiny (or major) typos that arise, and if you catch any, please let me know of those too. Also, suggestions are very welcome. I tried to think of everything, but I inevitably missed something someplace--I am not fully aware of the needs of Port Jefferson Branch riders or Oyster Bay riders, so if you see something you'd like to see changed, please let me know. You can leave a comment at the bottom of any of these posts, (and I have a nifty new comment system to make that even easier to do), or you can e-mail me at patrick@thelirrtoday.com at any time.
I have set up this page
on this site to serve as the database for each of the schedules. As I
publish the posts on them, links to each of the timetables will become
active, and I will be keeping a "revision history" so you can keep aware
of changes I make
I do not intend for the timetables posted in the coming weeks to be the "final drafts," and I intend to continue to make tiny changes as comments, suggestions, and corrections trickle in following each post. At one point after all of this I will throw together one final book that will feature all of the timetables, but I will probably make another couple thousand changes before then. But, for tomorrow, we will start with the Port Washington Branch and "work our way up" from there!
This seems to show what the first anonymous poster is describing:
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Looking forward to this. Thanks for putting in the time.
ReplyDeleteYour time constraints aside, I would be rather interested in seeing schedule options involving tradeoffs. For example, for the Mainline schedule, I would like to see one schedule with both tracks operating in the peak direction and no reverse-peak service, and an option with peak-direction express trains sacrificed for expanded reverse-peak service. Regardless, this is certainly an interesting project that I will be paying close attention to.
ReplyDeleteIt is virtually impossible to get any acceptable level of peak service on only one track. That said, it's possible to achieve some level of reverse peak service through some clever train ballet. More in a couple weeks.
ReplyDeleteI think it would be very, very difficult for the LIRR to sustain any reasonable amount of service with only one mainline track. The sheer loading that you would subject trains to would cause rampant delays and the Mainline would be reduced to something that is completely unusable as a result.
ReplyDeleteIn designing all of the schedules I paid close attention to reverse-peak service (and Sunny kept me "on track," if you will forgive the pun, in terms of reverse-peak service). At times there is nothing I could do to make it work, but using some acrobatics on the Mainline the gaps in service aren't as bad as they are today.
You really ought to look into getting a management job at the LIRR. You probably know way more about their operations than any other job applicant, and your timetables would really make you stand out.
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