What's to become of the Atlantic Branch?

(Photo credit: MTA)

Yesterday we began to consider the future of LIRR operations once East Side Access opens in 2019.  I mentioned there were a couple routes the LIRR could take in regard to its service patterns once it comes time to make up new schedules.

One of the options the LIRR has a lot to do with the Atlantic Branch and Atlantic Terminal.  Under one possible option, the LIRR would basically move every train that currently goes to Atlantic Terminal over to Grand Central and just add a few more. Writing this option into the schedules wouldn't be all that intensive.  They would basicallyIjust white out "Atlantic Terminal" on the schedules and write "Grand Central" in in its place.

Meanwhile, train service to Atlantic Terminal would be reduced to small cross-borough scoots that would run between Atlantic Terminal and Jamaica only.  At Jamaica, the trains would terminate at a new separate platform off to the side.

Do I think this is a particularly good idea?  No, I do not.  Simply shifting trains from Atlantic Terminal to Grand Central would be under-utilizing Grand Central.  Even if you added more trains to Grand Central, sending half-empty Far Rockaway and Hempstead Branch trains to there isn't going to fill up the farebox, so they would have to put a little more thought into their setup of the schedules to really take advantage of all this new capacity.

And abdicating Atlantic Terminal would absolutely kill ridership there.  Yes, the Barclays Center is still there so there would be ridership on event nights, but outside of that, I would expect ridership at Atlantic Terminal to drop significantly.

As I've said in the past, people hate transfers.  Passengers will always be inclined to take a direct train over one that involves a transfer someplace.  If somebody planned on connecting to the Subway at Atlantic Terminal, I would say that most would just stay on the train to Penn Station or Grand Central and get the subway there, since one transfer (to the subway at NYP/GCT) would be better than two (change at Jamaica/subway at ATL).  This doesn't necessarily bode well for the already jam packed Lexington Avenue Line...

And this transfer would be an extra annoying transfer since it would be an "up and over" transfer.  People who transfer at Huntington during one of those "up and over" transfers already know how annoying they could be.  Because the new shuttle platform would likely be off on the side at Jamaica and not in with the regular tracks, in order to get to it you would have to go up or down to the overpass or street level, then go back up or down to the track level.  These transfers don't only take more energy, they also eat up a lot more time.  Add freezing or 100° into the equation and the ordeal is even more unpleasant.

And what is this cross-borough scoot going to actually be like? Is the LIRR going to do a good job with it and have really frequent service like they've said or are they going to do a half-ass job with it and Atlantic Terminal will never be the same again...

Atlantic Terminal is designed to accommodate roughly 18 trains per hour. Currently it doesn't see nearly that many, but how many trains would the LIRR be willing to run? They could run a train every 7-10 minutes. However, that would require nearly 7 different trainsets. So that would be at least 42 M7's, 21 crew members, and countless megawatts of electricity needed every hour to maintain a service of this kind. That does not sound cheap.

And they would be sending all that money for what? A handful of transfer passengers. Ridership to Brooklyn is less than it could be already, especially in the off-peak. Most people on trains going to Brooklyn are only going to Brooklyn because the train is continuing there anyways. They don't want to bother transferring (see above) for a train to Penn Station, so they will just continue on to Atlantic Terminal and pick up the subway there.

Let me assure you, if the LIRR comes up with a cross-borough scoot it will not be well patronized. There aren't all that many people going form Brooklyn to Jamaica in the first place, and unless your destination is literally across the street from Atlantic Terminal (like the Barlcays Center), you are probably going to just stay on the train to Penn Station or Grand Central and catch the subway there. Those six car M7's with their minimum three crew members clunking along the Atlantic Avenue viaduct will be virtually empty and it will not be too long before the LIRR gives up and we're back to half hourly headways or worse, and we still have to go "up and over."  Atlantic Terminal would never be the same.

And while this cross-borough scoot plan doesn't make too much sense practically in the first place, it will make even less sense financially.  The LIRR's infrastructure is not set up to be run like a rapid transit system.  First off, on the LIRR, electric MU sets have to be run in sets of no less than six cars.  Throughout all interlockings there are large third rail gaps that can cause a train that has four or less cars to somehow have none of its third rial shoes on a third rail, and the train can become stranded, without power, for a long time in these circumstances.  (If you've every been riding through Jamaica on an M3 when the lights flicker on and off, this is the phenomenon I'm talking about, except with short trains, except in these cases there are other cars that are still powered that can shove your pair back onto the third rail). And it's not like this problem would be solved if you only run inbetween Atlantic Terminal and Jamaica as JAY and BROOK interlockings (especially JAY) have some of the biggest third rail gaps in the system.  So running trains shorter than six cars will likely not be an option.

And as per LIRR union contracts, every train (with the exception of the Greenport Scoots) is required to have at  least three crew members (an engineer, conductor, and assistant conductor).  Currently, the LIRR and the unions are at an impasse in contract negotiations and if a LIRR strike were to occur this summer, hopefully the MTA would be able to chip away at some of the union's archaic work rules, including this one.  But while abolishing the Assistant Conductor position on these runs might save some money, if the LIRR is going to have to get trains into or out of VD yard next to Atlantic Terminal, they are going to have to make reverse moves at some point, and they are going to need the Assistant Conductor position to help with those.

So it's clear to me at least that any sort of LIRR-run cross-borough scoot will not be successful no matter what they do to try and make it popular.

But are there other alternatives?  Ideally the LIRR would maintain and increase peak and off-peak service to Atlantic Terminal with through trains from Long Island.  They could easily support four to five trains an hour off-peaks with trains from places like Far Rockaway, Hempstead, Farmingdale, and Belmont Park.  (with one train per hour from Far Rockaway, Hempstead, and Farmingdale and two trains per hour from Belmont Park).  Belmont Park is a station that I wish the LIRR would do a lot more with, and here is their chance.  Not only could they increase service to Brooklyn, residents in Eastern Queens could also benefit from increased transit access.  But I wrote more about that back in June.

That would be the best option here.  Maintain and increase service from Eastern Long Island through to Atlantic Terminal and time connections better (cross-platform transfers at Jamaica, none of this "up and over" nonsense) and I would imagine Atlantic Terminal would be better used.

There is also one other alternative.  For a while now, many have kicked around the idea that the LIRR should turn over control of the Atlantic Branch between Jamaica and Atlantic Terminal over to New York City Transit (the Subway).  The Atlantic Branch would then be integrated into the subway's fare system and NYCT would use subway rolling stock with only two crew members and all like that.

However, there are also obstacles to this alternative.  While it might work and it might make more sense than the totally senseless LIRR-run cross-borough scoot plan, the subway and the LIRR have very little in common.  Pretty much the only thing they have in common is the standard track gauge.  While subway trains will probably be able to fit, platforms will have to be adjusted to accommodate the narrower subway cars, the power system will have to be knocked back down to 600 V third rail DC power to feed the subway cars (as LIRR trains use 750 volts), and probably the whole signaling system will have to be ripped out and NYCT's put in (especially since the LIRR will be installing Positive Train Control on the Atlantic Branch in the near future and subway trains don't use PTC).

But handing the Atlantic Branch over to NYCT would remove it from the LIRR's hands completely.  They would no longer be able to run trains through it anymore.  Next time there is a service disruption someplace on the Mainline or into NYP/GCT, the whole railroad will be undeniably screwed.

At the beginning of time, the LIRR had three different routes between Jamaica and the waterfront.  The Mainline, the Montauk Branch (Lower Montauk), and the Atlantic Branch.  Last November, the Lower Montauk Branch was wiped off the map, and in 2019 we might be waving goodbye to the Atlantic Branch too.

That would leave the LIRR one and only one routing between Jamaica and its most heavily used stations.  Only one.  In March we saw how painful losing one track on this valuable stretch of railroad can be when a non-passenger train derailed in Rego Park.  The LIRR was messed up for days.  Now imagine if two, three, or even all four of those tracks were knocked Out of Service.  What would the LIRR do?  They wouldn't be able to do a thing other than sit there and shove people on to the subway.

Flexibility is the single worst thing to lose on a railroad, and once it's gone, it is very hard to get it back.

Unfortunately, early indications coming out of the LIRR (lines dropped at committee meetings and such) seem to indicate they are looking to move in the direction of a LIRR-run cross-borough scoot, which is one I think they should steer away from at all costs.  In summation, the best thing to do here is to maintain and increase through service to Atlantic Terminal.  Relegating it to a cross-borough scoot will be majestically unpopular and handing it off to the subway (which will run it properly) will only drastically reduce extremely valuable flexibility in a very tightly wound system.

This post is part of the "Considering the Future of the LIRR" series.  To see other posts in this group, click here.