No More Timed Connections at Jamaica?

We've all head the phrase "Change at Jamaica," but coming 2019, that phrase might become a thing of the past.  All this week we have been looking at what the LIRR is planning to do with itself once East Side Access is finally open.  On Monday, I talked about some of the options the LIRR has when it comes to service patterns once East Side Access comes online: (1) the Abdication of Atlantic Terminal, (2) the Abolition of Timed Connections at Jamaica, and (3) increased use of mid-line starts.  I've already gone into (1) and (3) a bit already, and you can read those posts by following the above links.

Today I'll write a little bit about (2), the abolition of timed transfers at Jamaica.  In various meetings and press conferences, the LIRR administration has alluded to the fact that that they want to do away with timed transfers at Jamaica.

As it is right now, the LIRR has a brilliant system of connections set up at Jamaica where trains can arrive on three different tracks from three different eastern destinations, passengers can transfer between the trains, and then the three trains can depart to three different western terminals.  There is a post that is supposed to go inbetween the JAY/HALL/DUNTON interlocking walkthroughs and this one that goes a lot more into exactly how Jamaica "works" so brilliantly, but it's very involved and I haven't quite had the time to put it into words yet, so bear with me.  The general idea at play here is the three trains arrive on three tracks and passengers can go between the cars by transferring across the platform or by walking through the open doors of the train on the middle track.

However, the LIRR wants to take this brilliant design and toss it out the window.  While this setup works very, very well, there can sometimes be crowding on connections during the "peak of the peak" as people from Atlantic Terminal-bound and diesel trains pile onto already crowded trains to Penn Station.

The LIRR's ultimate goal here is to eliminate timed transfers at Jamaica.  If they eliminate timed transfers at Jamaica, they no longer have to deal with crowding conditions on some peak trains west of Jamaica due to the fact that they won't have people cramming onto their trains from other ones at Jamaica.

Sounds cool, right?  Not exactly.  As you might expect by this point, it's a lot more complicated than it seems.  Abolishing timed transfers at Jamaica means that now every branch must have direct service to every terminal at all times.  In the unfortunate reality, the LIRR is really only going to have two terminals going forward--Penn Station and Grand Central.  We know what they want to do with Atlantic Terminal, and I have nightmares at night thinking about what's going to happen to Hunterspoint Avenue and Long Island City.

But anyways, if the LIRR proceeds with this plan, they will have to provide service on every branch to both terminals all day long.  However, this has a huge potential to backfire.

In a perfect world (I've said that phrase a lot lately, haven't I?), since the LIRR is doubling the amount of western terminals in Manhattan they would double service along all their lines, yes?

No.

While I'd like to see service doubled, it would be overdoing it on certain branches.  Certain branches (Babylon, Ronkonkoma, Huntington) could use substantial increases in service while others (Hemsptead, Far Rockaway) probably will never be able to fill anything more than hourly headways.

At this point, the LIRR's plan seems to be pretty unfortunate for many.  Service will pretty much stay the same it is now, except trains would alternate between Penn Station.  So we would still have two Babylon locals per hour on the Babylon Branch, one every thirty minutes.  One of the locals would go to Grand Central and one would go to Penn Station per hour.  On the Hempstead Branch, for example, trains would alternate terminals hourly, going to Grand Central one hour then Penn Station the next.

The only thing is that, this time, since the LIRR is no longer maintaining timed transfers at Jamaica, so to get to Penn Station you have to take a train going to Penn Station.  To get to Grand Central you have to take a train going to Grand Central.  Yes, you could try to change at Jamaica, but you're probably going to have weird gaps and timings, you're going to have to transfer "up and over" and the conductors are going to scowl at you.

But just think about that for a second.  If I go from Bellmore to Penn Station every Saturday morning for work, I now have to take a train that goes to Penn Station, and there's only one of those an hour, so the LIRR has basically cut my service in half!

That's what it basically boils down to, if I'm going to one terminal with no convenient way to get to the other, the LIRR has just cut your service squarely in half without anybody saying anything.  We spent billions of dollars on ESA only to have the train service I need to take cut in half.  When's the next fare hike again?  

Now I don't live in Belmore or along any branch that is likely to have their service halved when ESA comes about; I live in Montauk and my train service stinks now and will stink after ESA opens (I'm just concerned about the very western tip of the Montauk Branch, but I'll save those concerns for another day).

Just keep in the back of your mind over the next couple years that whenever you hear the LIRR say that they want to abolish timed transfers at Jamaica and how great that will be, remember that that is a very sharp double edge sword that might just turn around and slash the trains that you actually need  to take in half.

This post is part of the "Considering the Future of the LIRR" series.  To see other posts in this group, click here.