MTA Issues 20-Year Capital Needs Assessment

Yesterday the MTA released it's 20-Year Capital Needs Assessment for the 2015-2034 time frame.  The report, a 148-page PDF, goes through and runs off the various capital improvement projects the MTA will need to undertake to maintain a state of good repair and expand capacity.

The report comes out around this time because the MTA is getting into the thick of funding season.  With the release of the next capital plan just a little over a year away, the MTA is kicking its quest to fund this multi-billion dollar plan into high gear.

This report basically provides a broad overview of the things that the MTA will need to do to keep the system running.  Throughout the report there are two main categories of projects deemed necessary by the MTA:

1. Rebuilding the System: works that strive towards bringing the system up to a state of good repair.  When you're dealing with one of the nation's oldest commuter railroads, there is a lot of things going on behind the scenes that keep it all running.  In may ways the railroad is held together by ducktape and string.  This category also include projects that involve replacing things before they fall into disrepair (i.e. we sure up the Manhasset Viaduct before it falls into the water).
2. Expanding and Enhancing the System: These projects are just as important as the state-of-good repair projects, if not more.  Added capacity is in dire need on many parts of the LIRR system, and added redundancy would work wonders during service disruptions.

In total, the MTA expects the little bundle of projects to come in at a nifty sum of over $105 billion.  Of that pocket change, roughly $13.4 billion will be needed to keep the LIRR up and running and expand the system.

That's no tiny sum.  When the next and subsequent capital programs come out we will be able to see in more detail exactly how the MTA wants to spend that money, but for now, we get a look at a broad overview of the MTA's goals for the next 20 years.

If you're following along on the .pdf, I'm going to skip ahead to page 61 (page 55 if you're looking at the page numbers on the bottom).  This is the point where it starts getting into the LIRR things.  The report is very general and doesn't really get specific.  For the sake of time, I'll sort of list off the projects and provide a brief description.  If I've already written more about the project in a separate post, I'll try to provide a link back to that post.

So the following are some of the capital projects the MTA would like to embark on for the Long Island Railroad from 2015-on.  The biggest ticket items are the Rolling Stock and Track Categories, with both having price tags exceeding $2 billion.  Below is a breakdown from the report as to how the LIRR's share of the $105 billion will be spent:

The investment strategy overview portion of the report gives a guideline as to what the direction the LIRR will be moving towards in the future.

First off, East Side Access will finally be coming a reality towards the end of the decade and the LIRR is also going to embark on a number of projects to make the rest of the system ready to send trains to Grand Central.  A number of these are already underway with projects such as the Colonial Road Improvement Project and the Massapequa Pocket Track.  The future capital plans will finish off all those necessary projects.

Perhaps one of the bigger and more unknown projects that is upcoming in the next capital plans is the Jamaica reconfiguration projects.  The report notes that for much of the station's 100 year history, the track level around it has remained largely the same.  In the coming years the railroad will seek to radically alter the layout of the station and surrounding interlockings to suit the needs of the expanding system.  We don't know precisely what the MTA has in mind for the system's most heavily trafficked interlockings, but I can only imagine the painful work outages it will cause.  We have general ideas of what they might like to do, like shifting the trains to Atlantic Terminal to a new platform separate from everything going through to NYP or GCT, but no concrete specifics at this stage.

The overview also notes the key importance of the Mainline and how it feeds so many other stations.  A huge percentage of the LIRR's trains touch the mainline between Floral Park and Hicksville at some point each day; it's one of the busiest sections of tracks and it shouldn't be neglected.  

The overview also targets other things like a new Republic station and more intermodal facilities along the lines of what has been working at Mineola for other stations around the system.

With all that introductory stuff out of the way, let's get down to the nitty-gritty. 

Rolling Stock

1. M9/M9A Cars: In future years the LIRR's rolling stock needs will increase dramatically.  With the opening of ESA, far more electric MU's than the LIRR's current fleet of 1,006 will be needed to maintain service.  The upcoming M9 procurement and subsequent order options will add up to 318 new cars to the LIRR's MU fleet.
2. Alternative Diesel Equipment:  The LIRR will also peruse funds to try and obtain some sort of "alternative diesel equipment."  This equipment would be on the lines of DMU's (or Diesel Multiple Units, cars that each have their own engine).  I won't get into the can of worms that are DMU's at the present moment, but the LIRR has this pool of equipment targeted for the more minor branches to provide "scoot service" between the outer endpoints and meetups with electric lines.   This is along the lines of what rumors were going around about the Oyster Bay Branch this summer.
3. Natural Replacements of Revenue and Non-Revenue Diesel Equipment: the LIRR's revenue fleet of DE's and DM's will be nearing their 16th birthday in the coming year and they're not getting any younger.  By the end of this twenty-year outlook the engines will be over 40 and quite ready for replacement.  Expenditures of this kind are natural in the diesel fleet life cycle; hopefully the LIRR will splurge for a couple more engines next time around and not leave us in such an equipment crunch next time around.  The LIRR's non-revenue diesel equipment, which are ages older than the DE's and DM's will need replacement even sooner.  While costly, these workhorses are tired and their replacemnts will be well utilized.
4. Passenger Coach Replacment: The C3's, which are just as old as the DE's and DM's will also need to be replaced before the next 20 years are up. Hopefully the next order the LIRR won't be as cheap as last time, but we'll cross that bridge when it comes to it.

Stations

1. General station work: in an effort to maintain the upkeep and appearance of the LIRR's 124 (soon to be 125) stations systemwide, the LIRR will continue to invest in stations and parking facilities.
2. Babylon Branch Station Rehabilitations: the Babylon Branch grade crossing elimination project wrapped up decades ago, and at the current moment, many of the Babylon Branch stations are starting to show their age.  The LIRR will be taking a complete station renovation approach to these projects.  We're currently seeing work done at Massapequa and soon to be Wantagh, but there could possibly be more projects like these for other stations on the horizon.  Babylon Station has been targeted as a specific, but there might well be others along the branch as well.
3. Natural TVM/TOM Replacements: In an effort to upkeep it's ticketing systems, the twenty year plan will allow for two full life cycles of ticketing equipment, consistent with an average 12-year lifespan for the equipment.  We're already starting to see some new smart-card friendly TVM machines being rolled out at stations, and eventually there might even be newer and more exiting innovations in the way the LIRR collects its fares.
4. Elmhurst Station: should ridership studies dictate that a station in this upcoming area of Queens prove sustainable, the LIRR would be willing to reconstruct a station in this area.  [link to previous post]
5. Republic Station: the 20-year plan also provisions for a new Repbulic Station along the bustling Route 110 corridor in Suffolk County.  The LIRR has targeted this area as a prime location for another installation of an intermodal center of some sort.

Track

1. General Track Work: The LIRR currently maintains a network of over 689 miles of track, all of which is (luckily) considered in a state of good repair.  It won't stay that way forever, however, with a little TLC from the railroad, so continued investment in annual trackwork programs and the like will be key to keeping the trains running.
2. Concrete Tie Installation: Concrete tie installations are planned for portions of the LIRR systems to increase reliability, service life, and stretches between outages.  Particularly, the LIRR aims to install concrete ties on the Mainline west of Ronkonkoma, as well as portions of the Atlantic, Port Jefferson, Oyster Bay, Montauk, and Port Washington Branches.
3. Wreck Lead Drawbridge Direct Fixation Work: among projects that will keep the system in a state of good repair include direct fixation work on the Wreck Lead Drawbridge that leads into Long Beach yard and station.
4. Jamaica Capacity Improvements: as discussed above, significant capacity chagnes are coming Jamaica's way.  It won't be cheap and it won't be easy, but it might very well contribute to much more reliable and frequent LIRR service.
5. Ronkonkoma Branch Double Tracking: completion of the full second Mainline track between Farmingdale and Ronkonkoma is also on the MTA's radar for a speedy completion.  The project was kicked into high gear earlier in the year, and construction is hopefully set to start ramping up on Phase 1 very soon.
6. Yaphank Double Tracking: the LIRR has also identified double tracking the Mainline between Ronkonkoma and Yaphank as a key investment.  East of Ronkonkoma is a very prominent "chicken or the egg" debate with regards to service levels and correlating ridership levels.  That's a debate for another day, though.

Line Structures

1. Bringing structures up to a state of good repair: This is the only category in the report considered not currently in a state of good repair.  Investments planned over the 2015-2019 and 2020-2024 periods, combined with an ongoing Operating-budget funded repair program, will bring the assets in this area into a state of good repair by 2024; thereafter they will be maintained under a cyclical normal replacement program.
2. Highway Bridge Replacements: at least six LIRR-owned highway bridges are planned for total replacement.
3. Continued Rehabilitation of the East River Tunnels: in conjunction with Amtrak, the MTA will chip in for the upkeep of perhaps the four most important sections of track on the railroad.  August 2013 saw an unfortunate amount of disruptions due to troubles in these tunnels, so continued investment will be key to maintaining reliability.

Communications and Signals

1. Natural Replacement of Signal System Components: over the next 20 years the LIRR will continue to keep on top of cyclical signal replacement programs, renovating and bringing the oldest signals and switches on the railroad to be in line with the rest of they system.  Less frequent breakdowns and increased reliability will be great benefits to keeping on top of the signal infrastructure. 
2. Improved Passenger Communication Systems: in the next 20-years the LIRR will also continue to improve and expand it's customer communication infrastructure, making the LIRR able to meet increasing voice, video, and data improvements.  The LIRR will also work to continue to update and replace communication cables in the East River Tunnels as well  as countless other aging utility poles systemwide.
3. Improved Wayside Communication Systems: the LIRR will also work to replace and improve its Wayside communications systems, meaning systems that train crews use to communicate with the railroad.  Specific systems like the current Private Branch Exchanges are targeted for replacement.  
4. CTC and PTC: the LIRR currently has one of the oldest cab signal systems in the country, and continued improvements will lead to the safer operation of trains across the system.  Furthermore, the LIRR will continue to work towards the goal of Centralized Train Control (CTC) where ultimately all trains on the entire system will be dispatched from one central location, instead of scattered outlying locations on the system.  The LIRR will also continue to work towards0 meeting the Federal PTC-mandate (hopefully sooner rather than later).

Shops and Yards

1. Suffolk Electric Yards: the LIRR will be significantly expanding its fleet of MU's in the coming years, and with the increased fleet size, the LIRR will need a place to store all that equipment, so the LIRR will be looking to construct additional yards someplace on Long Island.  A new Mid-Suffolk electric yard in Yaphank has already been provisioned for in the current capitol plan, and the 20-year assessment also calls for the construction of two additional yards in Suffolk County: one on the outer Port Jefferson branch and one someplace on the Montauk Branch.
2. Modernization of Facilities: the LIRR will also work to update and modernize its existing facilities to support future train operations.

Power

1. Substation Replacements: in an effort to keep the systems large amount of electrical substations in good working order, as well as ensuring that the power system can sufficiently support the current scope of LIRR operations plus leave room for expansions of service, the LIRR will continue to replace 5 or 6 substations per five year Capital Plan period. "While full substation replacements will still be required in select locations which serve multiple branches or where legacy 1940s substations are still in service, the LIRR will be shifting to a component-based program for much of its substation investments. Informed by a recently completed assessment of all substations throughout the system, this component-based approach will enable the LIRR to address critical needs at over 50 substations within a 10- to 15-year period. This represents almost half of all substations systemwide, dating from the early 1970s, which were built to address the power demands of the now decommissioned M-1 fleet."
2. Expansions of Electrification: the LIRR's outlook also provisions for the expansion of electrification deeper into Suffolk County on the Mainline, Port Jefferson, and Montauk Branches.  The report does not state specifics, but it does say that electric service would be expanded to 16 additional stations in Suffolk County.  Some back of the napkin calculations would lead me to believe that would ideally include all of the Port Jefferson Branch and as far as Yaphank and Patchouge on the Mainline and Montauk Branches, respectively. 
3. Transition to Aluminum Third Rail: in the coming years the LIRR will move to transition to a more efficient and sustainable aluminum type of third rail.  The report leads me to believe that the third rails would be replaced over time as they become ready for replacement (instead of one big project to replace all third rail on the system)

Miscellaneous 

1. "Included in this area are investments to meet environmental remediation requirements at LIRR substations, yards and other locations, as well as insurance coverage, engineering and administrative needs, all of which support the LIRR’s capital programs."

In conclusion, while some of these objectives might seem lofty at first, in my opinion, everything on this list is doable, provided sufficient funds can be secured.  Completion of as may of these projects in a timely fashion is critical to the sustainability of the railroad.  The vast majority of these projects could come in handy today and not necessarily in 20 years.

However, the absolutely most critical projects on this list are the capacity improvement project.   The double tracking and the third mainline track (which was mysteriously left out of this plan....) are the most critical projects that the LIRR will undertake.  Without them, most of the other points here are irrelevant.  The LIRR can purchase 50,000 M9's, if they don't have trackslots on the Mainline to run them, what good will they do?  The LIRR can electrify all the way to Greenport and Montauk, but if there's no room west of Hicksville or Babylon to run the trains, we're not going to get more than the 4-5 trains we currently see now.

Now's the LIRR's chance.  Get these projects done and it will be clean sailing for them.  However, if these projects get plagued as usual by overruns, delays, and opposition, then the LIRR is screwed.