Three months later, I received total counts for all summer Montauk trains from years 2005 through 2013. The total data is broken out by Friday and Sunday/Holiday trains.
I calculated the percent change in the ridership figures (both compared to 2005 and compared to the previous year) to see how much ridership has actually grown. With the exception the summers of 2006 and 2009, ridership has continually increased to the Hamptons, and in the last eight years, ridership is up 43%.
Historically, more people take the LIRR out to the Hamptons and fewer return on Sundays, but that gap has been closing in recent years.
The information on the left part of the table above was all that was sent to me, and there was no specific information given as to what trains those numbers actually include, but presumably it includes ridership on trains 2708-2718 and 8703-8719.
Using some fun formulas, I devised a system that would be able to approximate ridership numbers for each weekend, and approximate load counts for each train car headed out east. Instead of trying to pinpoint the proportions of the above riders over each and every summer weekend, I broke it down into two classes of weekends: "light" travel weekends (i.e. sumer weekends 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7) and "heavy" travel weekends (i.e. summer weekends 1, 6, and 8 though 15):
And while ridership to the Hamptons has increased 43% since 2005, the size of the LIRR's struggling diesel fleet has increased a whopping 0% during that same period. And since demand is increasing at a rate significantly greater than supply, crowding on trains to the east end is certainly becoming an issue, and it will presumably continue to become more and more of a problem for years to come.
I have been keeping a sharp eye on train on-time performance to the Hamptons this summer. Aside from one exceptionally bad Sunday, things have not been going as bad as they historically have been (we even had one Sunday with a 94% OTP), but we have yet to reach the peak of the summer season. What the remainder of the summer has in store for Montauk Branch riders (myself included) will have to be seen, but it is becoming more and more clear each year that the LIRR is having an increasingly difficult time handling the huge loads, despite using almost every available resource they have left. It will certainly be interesting to watch the whole thing go down in smoke.
There is not any more fat to trim off the Oyster Bay and Port Jeff diesel service on Fridays & Mondays. I don't see how they can continue t suport any increases in summer service without increasing the fleet. WOuld it be fiesable to buy regular height cars and diesel engines and just originate service in Jamaica and Hunterspoint Say 8 engines and 24 cars? Or are we limited by platform height?
ReplyDeleteThe problem is getting engines that will fit through Jamaica station canopies.
ReplyDeleteShort term: convert more Patchogue and Speonk trains into Scoots, and distribute cars from relieved transets to lengthen other trains, and add Babylon High-Wheelers to replace them west of Babylon. That is better than standees between Bay Shore and Jamaica.
Typo: The 2005 total should be 177 thousand not 117 thousand. This will affect the percentages.
ReplyDeletePatrick, does your train 2703 operate with any extra C3s on Monday mornings in the summer? What about the passenger load on Monday mornings on your train? And, how many more do you think use 2705? When I use 2707 on Mondays I always see extra passengers.
ReplyDeleteOk this probably a stupid question, but why can't the LIRR recall some of the old engines from NYAR that pulled the old pre-c3 cars around for decades? I realize of course they need to find cars for the engines to pull but aren't the engines the harder part? Are the engines(mp15's, etc) pulling the NYAR freight the same engines used to be used in revenue service? Or couldn't they be converted? I would assume that the needs of NYAR would be less during miday/weekends at least and more freight moves could be moved to overnight if these engines moved to revenue service during peak/weekends. I would also assume that if more engines are needed the NYAR clearance requirements are not as strict and leased engines from outside would be easier to find?
ReplyDeleteOk lots of assumptions here and I am sure that there are plenty of reasons why this isn't done, so I am hoping someone smarter than I can tell me why this is silly suggestion as it seems so obvious to me that there must be multitude of reasons why it isn't done.
And do what for 480v HEP power ?
ReplyDeleteThe FA Power Packs are gone along with the PT72 push-pull coaches. None are on the Island
6 or 7 P-72 coaches are left, owned by historical groups, and are no operable.
Tomorrow June 27 should be an interesting day of travel to the East End. Because of the Fourth of July coming next Friday, I'm betting many people will make a week+ of it, rather than waiting until the 3rd to travel for a 3-day weekend. We'll keep an eye on eastbound South Fork trains tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI've ridden 2703 in from Hicksville during the summer many times. There are no extra cars on the train, in fact last year a few Mondays were short cars. Crowding on non-Mondays is minimal (I would guess 40 people per car board at Hicksville and most get seats); on Mondays during the height of the summer ridership increases to the point where most are standing in the vestibules. It doesn't help that some of the Hamptons travelers take up two seats.
ReplyDeletePatrick rides 2705 a lot, he can comment on that way better than I can guess.
As an intern with the IT department I'm in Penn during the Friday rushes to provide support for the handheld ticket sales program. Ridership has been fairly consistent the past few weeks (excluding Memorial Day); I'll see how it goes tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteWhat has the experience been with Hampton Jitney ?
ReplyDeleteIs the 2 car Greenport Scoots getting any ridership surges (not that the LIRR would care, or even wants the business) ?
Taking up more than one seat with baggage and/or feet seems to be par for the course for Hamptons travelers I encounter on the late morning/early afternoon train 2707.
ReplyDeleteThe main problem at play here is that there is simply no existing equipment out there, period. The only real passenger cars currently on the market are low-level only cars from railroads out west. We don't have to worry about the Jamaica canopies or the East River Tunnels or anything because while there is nothing available that can fit under them at the current moment, there's nothing available that can't fit under them either.
ReplyDeleteThe used equipment market is dry, since everyone else is expanding their operations too, and keeping cars until they are very ready to go out to pasture. Any new equipment would likely have to be built new, and that takes time and money, neither of which are in our favor at this moment in time.
I wonder that if ridership continues to increase the LIRR may consider accelerating their plans to purchase additional diesel stock. If I understand correctly the existing fleet is scheduled to go another 20 years or so before replacement/replenishment. The existing equipment has not exactly set the railroad world abuzz with it's reliability. There is no reason to think that reliability will increase with age. If they were even to lose a couple of cars or engines in the the next 20 years it would really strain the limited capacity they have now
ReplyDelete2 Stupid questions for which there are probably no good answers...
ReplyDelete1) How low are those canopies?
2) Why do railroads insist on custom built proprietary equipment and dimensions? I understand that the infrastructure was inherited long ago. But the rolling stock, computerized signals, canopies etc. have all gone in since these railroads were put in the public trust. Would it make too much sense for these public agencies to cooperate around common protocols and achieve economies of scale and interoperability? Or are my assumptions about logic and logistics completely off base?
1) The canopies run the entire length of all 5 platforms, which is 11 car lengths. (The station was built to contain 16 P54 coaches).
ReplyDelete2) The structure was actually totally rebuilt in the 1990's, but replicates the 1917 structure architecturally, but with materials that needn't be painted.
LIRR and Amtrak each have their own requirements as to what their respective ASC systems and pulse codes must be.
That said, had they should have just raised the canopies a few inches to accommodate more types of engines, though I do not understand why they must all be so tall, but the LIRR diesel fleet should never have required 36 pin MU cables. IOW, "Not invented here " syndrome.
And here is Train 2708 the "Advance Cannonball" arriving in Westhampton this afternoon at 3:40 PM. Some mid-afternoon crowd!
ReplyDeleteTrain 2708 the "Advance Cannonball" on Friday June 27
I would agree that in order to expand service some through diesels from Jamaica will have to be converted into express MU's to/from Babylon at those busy times with scoots to Speonk & Patchogue. Of course just imagine if the Central connection had 3rd rail what more they could do. Or if they electrified all the way to Patchogue or Speonk. The question is right now how much more spare electric capacity do they have, both in terms of slots at Penn as well as equipment? Sunday nights shouldn't be an issue, but Friday PM's could surely be.
ReplyDeleteAnd finally, here is Train 2798 The Cannonball arriving at Westhampton today June 27. On time again. The crowd says it all.
ReplyDeleteAnd finally, here is Train 2798 The Cannonball arriving at Westhampton today June 27, 2014. The crowd says it all.
ReplyDeleteTrain 2798 The Cannonball