It's quite clear that LIRR's new service plan implemented on February 27 following the completion of East Side Access places a heavy emphasis on Midtown, with the wide majority of LIRR trains to and from Long Island now being routed to one of two Midtown terminals. But this ignores quite significant growth that has happened elsewhere in the city—and how the region as a whole has changed and evolved over the last 20 years since the idea for East Side Access was revived and the design finalized in 2002. By placing so much emphasis on service to one portion of the city, the LIRR is making a big bet on Midtown, and that move can prove to be make or break for the railroad as it continues to struggle to regain ridership during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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| Riders have been slow to utilize LIRR's new terminal at NY-Grand Central (Photo: The LIRR Today) |
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| 90% of LIRR's capacity is focused on providing direct service to Midtown |
The LIRR's big bet on Midtown effectively forecloses direct service to its terminals elsewhere in the city. Hunterspoint Avenue continues to be treated as a complete afterthought, used only as an overflow for diesel trains during rush hours to avoid clogging up Jamaica even further. While some did not expect HPA or LIC to survive into the
new service plan, the LIRR certainly hasn't done anything to improve service to these stops—or do anything for the diesel branches, generally. Service to HPA has been cut by 9% overall, with the number of trains serving the station reduced from 22 in the pre-pandemic schedule to 20 in the current plan—and there is still no midday, evening, or weekend off-peak service at all.
new service plan, the LIRR certainly hasn't done anything to improve service to these stops—or do anything for the diesel branches, generally. Service to HPA has been cut by 9% overall, with the number of trains serving the station reduced from 22 in the pre-pandemic schedule to 20 in the current plan—and there is still no midday, evening, or weekend off-peak service at all.
Then, of course, there's Brooklyn, which has had virtually all through service to/from Long Island cut and riders relegated to a clumsy, sloppily scheduled, and frustrating up-and-over transfer to shuttle service from a different platform at Jamaica. The LIRR initially slashed peak service between Jamaica and Brooklyn by 20% over pre-pandemic service levels, but restored those missing trains shortly after the first day of service when the railroad was immediately proven wrong. While some recent adjustments have helped somewhat, LIRR's Brooklyn riders are still stuck with a significantly downgraded service, which has increased peak commuting times by 11 to 12 minutes.
The origins of East Side Access
The LIRR first set down this path in the mid-1990's when the MTA and New York State set their sights on reviving proposals to build a LIRR link to Manhattan's East Side (which had been first proposed decades prior but was paused due to the city's financial issues). When NYS Governor George Pataki entered office in 1995 and proposed restarting East Side Access shortly thereafter, New York City was a very different place. The city had been reeling from several decades of sustained outward migration to the suburbs (sometimes known as "white flight"), its perilous financial state which put pressure on the city's ability to deliver services, and high crime rates (which had increases considerably over the 1970's and 1980's).
By this time, the city was starting to turn around, and employment was growing. After the markets bottomed out in 1992, the city was seeing its fastest rate of growth in 40 years. Attention to housing issues and getting a better handle on crime had very positive spill-over effects. Businesses were starting to return to the city and expand, drawing in more commuters and fueling population growth across the city. At that time, much of the city's major commercial office activity was centered in Lower Manhattan, which was in tough shape after decades of decline, and Midtown. Commercial activity elsewhere in Manhattan and in the outer boroughs was much more limited. Within Midtown, the neighborhood of Midtown East—roughly defined as the northeast corner of Midtown, between 42nd and 59th Streets, east of 5th Avenue—offered the best opportunity for new growth. When the MTA wanted to shovel a few billions of dollars towards a suburban rail megaproject (the Second Avenue Subway was also being restarted at the time, and since the city vs. suburbs dynamic was as bad then as it is now, the suburbs had to get something in return), the idea of building a direct rail link to one of the few up-and-coming commercial neighborhoods in the city seemed like a good idea.
The MTA and LIRR doubled-down on their bet on Midtown in the months following the 9/11/2001 World Trade Center attacks. In the wake of the tremendous and catastrophic damage to the World Trade Center site (which was the largest concentration of jobs in the Financial District), many thought Lower Manhattan was done for good. When the MTA made the decision to accelerate East Side Access, everyone thought that most of the city's future commercial growth was going to come in Midtown East.
When you look at the configuration and location of East Side Access, this thought-process is pretty evident. Why is the LIRR station oriented north-south and several blocks north of 42nd Street? People complain about the very long walk from the LIRR platforms to the Lexington Avenue Line platforms, but that was never really the goal of ESA—after all, everyone was abandoning Lower Manhattan, why would anyone want to connect to the Subway to go downtown? No, the LIRR platforms at East Side Access are where they are between 45th and 48th Streets not to provide easy connections to the Subway, but to put people within walking distance of all those big office buildings north of Grand Central along Park and Madison Avenues in Midtown East. That's where everyone thought the growth would be going.
That, of course, didn't end up happening. We did not abandon Lower Manhattan. In the immediate aftermath of the World Trade Center attacks, we saw some real growth and the establishment of the city's first secondary CBD's—companies forced out of Lower Manhattan instead decamped to Downtown Brooklyn (where office space was much cheaper and there were plenty of existing transit connections) and Jersey City (which welcomed businesses with aggressive growth schemes in the early 2000's). Lower Manhattan has seen tremendous revitalization and a renaissance—the World Trade Center complex has been rebuilt, and significant investments in public realm improvements have made the Financial District and the surrounding neighborhoods some of the hottest in Manhattan. Over the last 10-15 years, we have also seen whole new commercial centers sprout up out of the ground. The Bloomberg-era Long Island City rezoning has started to bear fruit and now that is gaining its footing as a proper secondary CBD. The extensive new development around Hudson Yards has been shifting Manhattan's center of gravity back west.
Through all of that, Midtown East saw some growth—but it was much, much more meager than what I think everyone expected. Midtown East (42nd to 59th between 5th Avenue and the East River) saw a meager 7.9% growth in employment between 2002 and 2019—adding just over 21,000 jobs, well below the 33% increase in employment in Manhattan overall and the citywide 43% job growth rate over that same time period. While many thought the bulk of the city's job growth would take place in Midtown East, it has instead been home to just 1.6% of the new jobs added across the city since 2002.
Then there is the latest and newest trauma to the city's economy caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The immediate shift to work-from-home at the onset of the pandemic and the very slow return to office in certain industries has impacted different parts of the city in different ways. Midtown East—home to many of the big accounting and financial services firms (jobs which have been much more inclined to still work from home)—has been among the most impacted and the slowest to rebound from the pandemic. Anecdotally, while foot traffic on the streets and sidewalks around Herald Square, Penn Plaza, and Times Square seems to be approaching pre-pandemic norms, Hudson Yards and the Financial District a little less so, Midtown East is still very quiet.
Hunterspoint Avenue and Long Island City
While the completion of East Side Access and a one-seat ride to the East Side means that Hunterspoint Avenue and Long Island City stations see reduced utility from serving as transfer points to the East Side, there is still significant potential for ridership growth for people with origins and destinations in Queens itself, who would not be adequately served by detouring in the wrong direction on the Subway to NY-Grand Central. The LIRR’s new service plan does not increase, and actually decreases, service to/from Hunterspoint Avenue station.
The picture at the left below was taken from LIRR’s station information page for Hunterspoint Avenue. Taken at least a decade ago, it shows the LIC skyline largely barren with the exception of a lone high-rise office building near Court Square. Compare that to the picture at the right taken by me last year from the same angle, and the LIC skyline has changed considerably, with so many new high-rise buildings being built that the original Citigroup building can hardly be made out among all of the new residential and commercial towers.
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| Left photo: the Long Island City skyline at some point around 2000 (Photo: MTA) Right photo: the much more robust LIC skyline in March 2021 (Photo: The LIRR Today) |
This original picture (still used on the LIRR’s website) is emblematic of the LIRR’s extremely outdated approach to serving western Queens—completely ignoring the tremendous growth that has taken root here over the last decade. The LIRR’s new service plan actually reduces service to the Long Island City area, continuing this trend of ignoring rail service to one of the fastest growing areas in the city.
According to the US Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data, the total number of jobs in the Long Island City-Hunters Point Neighborhood Tabulation Area has increased by 67% since 2010, with this area adding nearly 15,000 new jobs over the last decade—while the LIRR has not lifted a finger to improve service to this area. As a result, many of these new jobs in the LIC area have been filled by those who live elsewhere in the city, and the number of people commuting from Long Island to workplaces in NYC has grown by a still considerable but a cooler 52%:
Approximately 40% of people who work in the Long Island City-Hunters Point area commute from places elsewhere in Queens or Nassau/Suffolk Counties, suggesting there is significant potential for growing ridership to and from the greater LIC area. The LIRR has long ignored suggestions and requests to improve service to HPA and LIC stations, especially from branches within electric territory. HPA and LIC have become diesel-only stations, served by the diesel branches which predominately bring riders from Suffolk County (who account for less than 5% of the overall commuter demand to/from the Long Island City area), and do not adequately serve those coming from places further in around Queens and Nassau, which account for 35% of the overall commuter demand.
Additionally, while the LIRR is proposing excellent increases in reverse-peak service on many branches—allowing New York City residents to access additional job opportunities on Long Island—those who live in the Long Island City-Hunters Point area are completely shut off from these opportunities. With the tremendous level of residential development, the population of the Long Island City-Hunters Point area has nearly tripled in the last 10 years. This area added more than 20,000 new residents, many of which could take a job on Long Island if they had reasonably fast and frequent reverse-peak service to get them there.
Hunters Point has also developed into a significant cultural destination, with people flocking to the area on weekends to visit Gantry Plaza State Park, Hunters Point South Park, and the many other attractions in this area, attracting people outside of just the traditional rush hours.
Requiring riders to take the Subway to either NY-Grand Central (and double back) or Woodside is not an acceptable alternative. This not only requires the payment of an additional fare beyond what’s already charged to/from zone 1, but also significantly extends travel time (taking the 7 train to Woodside and catching the LIRR there adds at least 12 minutes over a direct train from HPA to Jamaica, almost doubling the travel time to Jamaica). Doubling back on the subway to NY-Grand Central would more than double the current travel time compared to a direct train.
The LIRR should seriously consider improving service to Hunterspoint Avenue and Long Island City stations by establishing a permanent, reasonably frequent service in both directions, 7 days per week. There are several possible ways to accomplish this, many of which can largely be accomplished by utilizing existing train crew and equipment downtime outside of rush hours:
- Converting equipment trains and yard trains that currently run empty between Long Island City and Jamaica during the reverse-peak and midday periods, including several revenue trains that run empty between LIC and Jamaica and only carry passengers east of Jamaica. These would be the easiest trains to convert and institute and should be done immediately.
- Extending all diesel trains to operate to/from HPA and LIC instead of terminating at Jamaica, Huntington, or Babylon. In addition to providing service to HPA/LIC while not sacrificing service to the Manhattan terminals, this would significantly improve service for diesel branch riders, as they would no longer have to deal with timely and annoying transfers at outlying points (especially Huntington) and double transfers if they are headed to Brooklyn or the other Manhattan terminal.
- Adding additional trains from the small electric branches to HPA/LIC. The LIRR’s new service plan has the small electric branches (Hempstead, West Hempstead, Long Beach, and Far Rockaway) continuing to see train frequencies well below their full capacity. The LIRR could add trains from these small branches to HPA/LIC to accomplish several goals: better serve the Nassau/eastern Queens to LIC commuter market, provide additional service opportunities for riders on the small branches who want to go to Manhattan (via transfer at Jamaica), and also allowing LIRR the opportunity to load these trains up with more local stops in lieu of adding stops to Manhattan-bound trains from the busier branches, reducing travel times for those riders.
- Adding additional shuttle trains between Jamaica and HPA/LIC to pick-up connecting riders. Especially during off-peak periods, the LIRR could operate additional shuttle trains to/from platform C (tracks 4 and 5) at Jamaica without a notable impact on other operations through the station. These shuttles can work similar to (or as a replacement for) the Brooklyn shuttles.
Overall, the LIRR is continuing to service Long Island City as if it was still home to half-abandoned warehouses and industrial businesses, and not a thriving and still rapidly growing neighborhood. There are significant opportunities for LIRR to attract new riders and meaningfully grow service at Hunterspoint Aveune in a way that they can't do adequately by forcing riders to take the Subway to Woodside or backtrack to NY-Grand Central (or even with a new Sunnyside Main Line station).
Brooklyn
Perhaps the most adversely-impacted by the LIRR's recent service changes, the LIRR’s new operating model for Atlantic Terminal service is devastating to those who travel between destinations on Long Island and Brooklyn, which represent the wide majority of LIRR's ridership on the Atlantic Branch (and future market potential). According to ticket sales data, between 85% and 90% of LIRR riders that used the Brooklyn stations pre-pandemic traveled through Jamaica to someplace further out in Queens or Eastern LI. Even throughout the pandemic and the considerable growth in intra-city ridership spurred by the Atlantic Ticket discount program, ridership through to destinations east of Jamaica continues to make up over 80% of the riders onboard Brooklyn trains:
The LIRR's elimination of virtually all through service between Long Island and Brooklyn introduces significant inconvenience for those who elect to avoid the crowded Manhattan terminals and instead take a more direct route to Downtown Brooklyn and Lower Manhattan. Further, the LIRR has gone about this in the most disruptive and inconvenient way possible, by forcing these riders into an inconvenient up-and-over transfer at Jamaica.
The LIRR’s messy diminution off Brooklyn service also completely ignores the considerable growth in commercial activity throughout Downtown Brooklyn in the last 20 years. According to the US Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data, Kings County has added a significant number of new jobs since the LIRR first hatched this plan in the early 2000’s—most of which have been in Downtown Brooklyn, which has developed as a solid secondary Central Business District. Overall, Brooklyn has seen a 60% increase in employment, adding over 325,000 new jobs since 2002.
LIRR ridership to/from Brooklyn has also been growing significantly faster than the railroad’s traditional Manhattan-bound base. Between 2016 and 2019, LIRR ridership to/from the Brooklyn stations grew by a whopping 23% according to ticket sales data, adding approximately 1.6 million new riders. Meanwhile, LIRR ridership to and from Manhattan has been roughly flat—growing just 1% during that time, a fraction of the overall growth rate across the whole of the system. Nearly half (47%) of the 3.3 million new riders the LIRR attracted between 2016 and 2019 wanted to travel to Brooklyn.
Further, during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, ridership to/from Brooklyn has recovered at a faster and more persistent rate than Manhattan-bound travel. In 2021, the LIRR carried 46% of its pre-pandemic ridership to/from Brooklyn, 10 percentage points better than Manhattan-bound travel, which continues to recover slower than the overall systemwide average.
If anything, these facts suggest that the LIRR should be looking at ways to increase through service to and from Brooklyn, not dramatically scale it back. It is worth noting that this considerable growth and recent stronger-than-average recovery has taken place despite the LIRR largely ignoring service to and from Brooklyn for the better part of the last 40 years. The Brooklyn stations have seen this level of ridership growth despite no real increases in rush hour service, a paltry half-hourly off-peak service offering, and no overnight service for the last 10 years. Imagine what it could be if LIRR actually tried to serve all of its riders equally, instead of spending so much attention, focus, and money on service to/from Manhattan (which is obviously not growing as fast).
The LIRR’s near-complete abdication of through service to Brooklyn cuts off direct access to what is clearly among the fastest growing segments on the entire railroad. The original decision to advance this ill-fated shuttle concept was taken many years ago, before this level of commercial and residential growth in Downtown Brooklyn really took off. As population and job growth evolves and changes over time, LIRR must be nimble and adapt its service patterns to respond to and encourage this growth, not dig its head into the sand and pretend it’s not happening. To double down and ignore the need for increased service to Brooklyn is foolish and spiteful.
To be clear, the one measly train per hour between West Hempstead/Hempstead/Freeport and Brooklyn is obviously neither a sufficient nor a proper response to this level of ridership potential and growth. It is merely a token gesture and a red herring to allow LIRR to say they are keeping through service to Brooklyn, when in reality the vast majority of Brooklyn riders will now need to deal with a cumbersome up-and-over transfer at Jamaica.
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| The Subway gateline is literally steps away from the LIRR train at Atlantic Terminal—you don't need your hiking shoes to get to the subway platforms like at NY-Grand Central (Photo: The LIRR Today) |
As a result, many LIRR riders who ride to Brooklyn are doing so as a shortcut to reach Lower Manhattan. By cutting off through service and convenient transfers, these riders will instead be encouraged to further crowd trains to Manhattan and pick up the Subway there. Instead of allowing those riders to continue spreading out across the 5 different Subway lines that stop at Atlantic Terminal, have considerable capacity, and can take you to the doorstep of virtually anywhere in Lower Manhattan, riders who stay on to NY-Penn Station will instead further crowd the Seventh and Eighth Avenue Lines, and riders bound for Lower Manhattan who stay on to NY-Grand Central only have the Lexington Avenue Line, one of the worst lines on the Subway for overcrowding. The MTA has not thoroughly discussed the expected impacts to crowding on the Lexington Avenue Line, and if any mitigations will be required if LIRR ridership rebounds closer to 100% of 2019 levels and riders abandon Brooklyn for NY-Grand Central. Estimates from pre-pandemic do not reflect changes and evolutions in commuting patterns over the last two years, and ridership is likely to return to levels where overcrowding will be a concern before the MTA is able to complete Penn Station Access and further phases of the Second Avenue Subway.
Further, by effectively eliminating through service to Brooklyn (and moving forward with plans to reduce the number of routes from Jamaica station proper towards Brooklyn, as proposed for later phases of the Jamaica Capacity “Improvements” project), the LIRR is limiting its operational flexibility. By focusing all of its attention on providing service to Manhattan, it is effectively placing all of its eggs in a single basket by sending all but a few trains from Eastern Long Island via the Main Line between Jamaica and HAROLD Interlocking. In the event there is any disruption or incident on this segment, service on effectively the entire railroad is at risk of grinding to a halt—without the flexibility to divert trains to or continuing to operate regularly scheduled trains out of Brooklyn to places on Long Island, service can quickly fall apart and trains can stack up outside Jamaica waiting for track space to discharge passengers. Since the beginning of 2022, there have been 5 incidents that have resulted in full suspensions of service in one or both directions between Jamaica and New York, and 73 incidents that resulted in one or both of the local tracks being taken out of service for one reason or another (other than scheduled trackwork). Other than two of the full suspensions, each of these incidents took place within HAROLD Interlocking or along the Main Line between HAROLD Interlocking and Jamaica, meaning that they would affect virtually every LIRR train in one or both directions.
- Full suspensions
- January 15 (police investigation near Woodside)
- January 31 (switch trouble at NY-Penn Station)
- February 22 (person struck by a train near Forest Hills)
- March 13 (Amtrak train with equipment trouble near HAROLD Interlocking)
- August 9 (signal trouble at NY-Penn Station)
- Stations bypassed (local track out of service)
- January 7 (signal trouble)
- January 8 (broken rail)
- January 25 (switch trouble near HAROLD Interlocking)
- February 1 (switch trouble near Woodside)
- February 21 (train striking debris)
- February 22 (PTC testing)
- March 13 (late-clearing trackwork)
- March 14 (person in need of medical attention at Forest Hills)
- March 18 (switch trouble near HAROLD Interlocking)
- March 29 (person in need of medical attention at Woodside)
- April 20 (late-clearing trackwork)
- April 26 (track condition near Woodside)
- April 27 (police investigation near Woodside)
- May 10 (track condition near Woodside)
- May 12 (switch trouble near HAROLD Interlocking)
- May 17 (track condition)
- May 20 (broken rail west of Jamaica)
- May 27 (broken rail east of Woodside)
- May 31 (track condition near Woodside)
- June 8 (track condition)
- July 11 (third rail power problem near HAROLD Interlocking)
- July 12 (emergency Amtrak trackwork near HAROLD Interlocking)
- August 3 (track condition near Forest Hills)
- August 9 (broken rail near HAROLD Interlocking)
- August 18 (broken rail near Forest Hills)
- August 19 (setting temporary platforms)
- August 19 (removing temporary platforms)
- August 19 (disabled train near Forest Hills)
- August 21 (signal trouble near Woodside)
- August 23 (setting temporary platforms)
- August 24 (investigation at Woodside)
- August 24 (removing temporary platforms)
- August 31 (signal trouble)
- September 6 (setting temporary platforms)
- September 8 (switch trouble near Jamaica)
- September 15 (broken rail west of Woodside)
- September 19 (removing temporary platforms)
- September 21 (setting temporary platforms)
- September 24 (Amtrak train with equipment trouble near HAROLD Interlocking)
- October 5 (broken rail near Woodside)
- October 13 (switch trouble in the East River Tunnel)
- October 16 (Amtrak train with equipment trouble near HAROLD Interlocking)
- October 19 (setting temporary platforms)
- October 22 (person struck by a train at Woodside)
- October 31 (third rail power problems near Woodside)
- November 3 (investigating the tracks)
- November 23 (broken rail west of Woodside)
- November 24 (police activity at Kew Gardens)
- November 28 (switch trouble near NY-Penn Station)
- November 29 (setting temporary platforms)
- November 30 (setting temporary platforms)
- December 1 (setting temporary platforms)
- December 1 (broken rail)
- December 5 (disabled train)
- December 7 (unplanned trackwork)
- December 13 (broken rail near Woodside)
- December 14 (broken rail near Woodside)
- December 20 (person in need of medical attention)
- December 23 (switch trouble west of Woodside)
- December 24 (switch trouble west of Jamaica)
- January 2 (switch trouble near Woodside)
- January 3 (broken rail near Woodside)
- January 4 (inspecting a track defect near Forest Hills)
- January 5 (track testing)
- January 11 (switch trouble near Woodside)
- January 13 (switch trouble near Woodside)
- January 17 (setting temporary platforms)
- February 4 (switch trouble near Woodside)
- February 7 (broken rail near Woodside)
- February 10 (broken rail near HAROLD Interlocking)
- February 22 (track defect west of Woodside)
- February 23 (person in need of medical attention at Woodside)
- March 21 (broken bar near Woodside)
By maintaining a more robust level of through service to and from Brooklyn, the LIRR can be more resilient to these types of delays and be in a better position to divert trains to keep people on the move when such incidents do occur.
Additionally, the premise of LIRR’s justification for eliminating most through service to Brooklyn is flawed. The LIRR has made references to the “left turns” that Brooklyn trains are required to take to cross between Jamaica station proper and the Atlantic Branch, creating conflicts with seemingly more important Main Line trains bound for Manhattan. But the original/existing track layout west of Jamaica is configured to already minimize the number of conflicts under most circumstances (since eastbound Main Line tracks 2 and 4 flyover the Atlantic Branch). The problems principally happen when the LIRR uses a third Main Line track in the peak direction (and operates in a 3+1 pattern), and a train needs to move westbound from Jamaica tracks 4, 5, or 6 to Main Line track 2, or eastbound from Main Line track 1 to Jamaica tracks 3, 4, or 5. This puts Main Line trains in direct conflict with trains to and from Brooklyn and creates the “left turns” to which railroad officials have referred.
But even so in this situation, the conflicts in this situation are then predominately with reverse-peak trains. The LIRR already has some significant gaps in reverse-peak service to/from Brooklyn. The LIRR could, during these times when there are likely to be conflicts and congestion with reverse-peak Brooklyn trains, continue to run peak-direction trains between Eastern Long Island and Brooklyn like normal, and then have the excess trainsets layover in VD Yard in Brooklyn or return back as reverse-peak shuttle trains that then use the shuttle platform F (the trains can then either turn back as shuttle trains later in the rush hour, or run to/from Hillside). This would allow the LIRR to continue maintaining most peak-direction through service to Brooklyn while limiting the impact reverse-peak trains to/from Brooklyn would have when the railroad operates the Main Line in a 3+1 pattern.
However, the actual service levels the LIRR is proposing in these draft timetables do not suggest that operating the Main Line using this 3+1 pattern is even necessary (or at a minimum, is only needed for a very short period of time). During the peak of the AM Peak, the LIRR is proposing to operate a maximum of 32 westbound trains on the Main Line between Jamaica and HAROLD Interlocking between 8:00a and 9:00a. If these trains were consolidated onto 2 tracks west of Jamaica, that would require the railroad to operate 16 trains per hour on tracks 1 and 3 during this peak hour, which equates to a train every 3.75 minutes on average, which the LIRR should be capable of managing. During the PM Peak, the train volume is even less, with a maximum of just 29 trains per hour (15 trains per track, or a train every 4 minutes):
At a minimum, if operating with a third track in the peak direction would be convenient to facilitate more local stops at Kew Gardens, Forest Hills, and Woodside, it certainly shouldn’t be necessary to operate with three tracks through JAY Interlocking. The railroad can operate on two tracks through JAY Interlocking itself and then spread out to a third track using the switches nearer to Metropolitan Avenue (after the junction with the Atlantic Branch to Brooklyn).
By operating service along the Main Line in a more traditional 2+2 configuration, with equal capacity east and westbound, the number of “left turns” or conflicts with reverse-peak Brooklyn trains would be dramatically reduced, thus allowing for the railroad to continue a much more appropriate level of through-service between Brooklyn and Eastern Long Island. This also has the additional advantage of allowing the LIRR to increase reverse-peak service beyond the nice but still small improvement currently proposed. By increasing reverse-peak service and keeping train crews and equipment on the move instead of sitting around in yards, the LIRR can operate more efficiently and attract additional riders little marginal operating costs.
In the event that the LIRR is contemplating further service increases beyond what can be squeezed onto two tracks, the LIRR should immediately prioritize changes to the upcoming Jamaica Capacity “Improvements” project to facilitate this additional train traffic without sacrificing through service to Brooklyn. One solution can include, as an example, adding a third eastbound and westbound track in JAY Interlocking over the Van Wyck Expressway between Jamaica station itself and Jamaica Avenue so that peak-direction trains can utilize three tracks through JAY Interlocking without interfering with reverse-peak Atlantic Branch trains:
While the MTA and LIRR have tried to bill the moderately more frequent shuttle service as an “improvement” for Brooklyn riders, it is in reality the opposite. An increase in frequency between Brooklyn and Jamaica is ultimately meaningless for the 80+% of riders who are travelling through to a destination east of Jamaica if frequency is not being similarly improved on those branches (which it is not). If Far Rockaway Branch trains are still only running once per hour, someone looking to travel from Brooklyn to Far Rockaway still has only one service opportunity per hour—the fact that there are additional trains operating at other times during the hour is meaningless. Additional frequency is useful and important for growing intra-city ridership between Brooklyn and Jamaica, but, again, those represent the minority of trips and such improvements should not come at great harm to through travelers. Further, for many through travelers, the “improved” frequency is actually a significant downgrade in service as the shuttle trains are no longer timed to sync up with other connections at Jamaica. To continue the Brooklyn to Far Rockaway example from above, under the proposed schedules someone travelling from Brooklyn to the Far Rockaway Branch would have to wait for 23 minutes at Jamaica, increasing the door-do-door travel time by more than 33% compared to the current schedules. In this case, the additional frequency is meaningless, and by not timing connections, the travel time for this trip gets significantly worse and taking the train becomes borderline unusable.
Behind the times, again
The LIRR is behind the times, as usual—instead of adjusting its proposed and final East Side Access service plans to account for how the landscape of employment and commercial activity across the city has changed over the last 15 years, the LIRR seems to be sticking to some of its very original plans based on how we expected New York City to grow 20+ years ago—and not how it has actually grown and continues to grow today.
The map below shows the relative job growth across New York City neighborhoods between 2002 and 2019, according to the US Census. Red/pink shaded neighborhoods have lost jobs, and green areas have seen increases in employment, with the darker the green area the higher the increase in employment there:
While LIRR should evaluate demand on each branch and provide a robust level of through service to Brooklyn from all stations in electric territory (and should, at a minimum, not be a reduction below what was offered pre-pandemic), the LIRR can prioritize further improvements in Brooklyn through service for the branches that would have the least operational impact. For example, trains that operate via the Atlantic Branch east of Jamaica (primarily the Long Beach and Far Rockaway Branches) can pass through Jamaica and head to Brooklyn with virtually no conflict with Manhattan-bound trains that are coming from the South Shore or the Main Line. The Long Beach and Far Rockaway Branches (along with the local stations in Southeast Queens) would likely benefit significantly from increased peak and off-peak service as well, and adding additional trains between Long Beach, Far Rockaway, and Brooklyn would allow the railroad to provide more service on these branches without sacrificing slots on the Main Line and into the Manhattan terminals. Similarly, trains from the South Shore can pass through Jamaica to/from Brooklyn with limited interference with Main Line trains to/from New York.
The elimination of through service and timed, cross-platform transfers represents a significant downgrade in service for the 80+% of Brooklyn riders who travel through to/from someplace east of Jamaica. This has, in effect, eliminated Brooklyn as an alternative to the crowded Manhattan terminals for those bound for destinations in Lower Manhattan. The LIRR's plan ignores the considerable commercial growth in Downtown Brooklyn over the last few years and effectively suffocates service to what is one of the fastest growing segments on the railroad. By cleaving off Brooklyn from the rest of the railroad, the LIRR is limiting its flexibility to divert trains to Brooklyn in the event there is a disruption that reduces capacity or closes the Main Line. The entire basis for the LIRR's decision is weak given the minimal increases in trains that will be travelling through Jamaica under the proposed schedules, and the LIRR has the time and opportunity now to revise the Jamaica Capacity "Improvements" plans to better mitigate these conflicts without significantly reducing through service to Brooklyn.
The LIRR's new service plan does take some solid steps towards improving the baseline schedules—making service more consistent throughout the rush hour, providing more service earlier and later in the rush hour as ridership during those times grows, and making some good progress towards standardizing service patterns and making them more consistent and understandable. But the LIRR's service plan also includes some serious, structural flaws that represent a significant step backward in many areas. By placing all of its eggs in one basket and making a big bet on Midtown, LIRR's future ridership growth is hinging on a part of the city that has tremendous potential, yes, but is also ignoring significant growth and needs elsewhere across the city. As a result, the LIRR will both be less resilient for its day-to-day operation (as now 92+% of capacity is being funneled down the Main Line and through HAROLD Interlocking, a major potential point of failure) as well as making it tougher for the LIRR to capitalize on growth in the up-and-coming areas of the city.
So commercial growth did not happen in the places everyone anticipated back around the turn of the century. It's not possible to go back in time or move East Side Access someplace else, that ship has sailed—but the LIRR should not double down on a losing bet and structure its operating plan today to send so much capacity to an area that hasn't grown, while suffocating the parts of the city that are seeing job growth. The LIRR should go back to the drawing board and re-evaluate its schedules to provide a much more robust level of through service between Brooklyn, Long Island City/Hunters Point to and from Eastern Long Island.
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