Sunday, April 26, 2020

Fleet efficiency and maintenance costs

Fleet locomotive and rolling stock purchases are very expensive, and as we can see with questions surrounding the sizing of a new diesel fleet, determining just how many locomotives or cars are needed to provide adequate service now and allow for increased capacity later can be a very complicated subject.  When it comes to figuring out how much rolling stock to purchase, there is a sweetspot between minimizing the amount of upfront capital costs required for this equipment and providing adequate capacity to meet the needs of today and future growth.

Fleet efficiency is very important: it relates to how much equipment is needed to provide a certain level of service along with spare cars in the need there are maintenance issues that require other equipment to be taken out of service.  The more efficient a fleet is, the more service it can provide with a smaller number of locomotives, cars, etc. (and therefore lower capital and operating costs over the life of the fleet).  The better maintained a fleet is, the less it breaks down, and the less of a shop margin is needed to substitute for malfunctioning cars.

The following data is from the Federal Transit Administration's National Transit Database.  Transit operators across the country report a variety of information to the US DOT on an annual basis, and the most current information available is from 2018.  This looks at just a small portion of the data that's reported, for operators classified as "commuter railroads" (plus the Alaska Railroad, which is classified separately).  You can find the relevant data and the calculations used in this piece excerpted here.

The data is presented as-is, exactly as it was reported by the railroads.  While the NTD effort does an overall great job of creating some sort of unified reporting and benchmarking mechanism for the nation's mass transit systems, there is always opportunities for error, either due to differences in calculations or methodologies, or agencies intentionally inflating/underballing the figures they report.  I'll try to point out some of the glaring inconsistencies as we go along...for example, operators have to report the total number of mechanical failures that impact a scheduled trip to the US DOT...for 2018, the LIRR reported a total of 138 mechanical failures, yet in their monthly operating reports for 2018 included in the meeting notes for the MTA Board committee meetings, the LIRR reported a total of 423 primary failures (a mechanical issue that causes a delay), more than three times what the railroad reported to the US DOT...

Fleet efficiency

Train equipment is expensive, and it requires significant upfront investment.  Once it is built, delivered, and placed into service, the marginal cost of running the train for 20 hours a day vs. 6 hours a day is not that much.  To this end, the more train equipment is run per day, the more value we get for our upfront capital dollars.  This is a big part of the reason behind "flattening the curve" and improving off-peak service to attract new off-peak service...off-peak service is cheap to add and can deliver big dividends, it almost always just requires using existing equipment and resources more efficiently.

LIRR's West Side Yard, filled to the brim with trains sitting around,
doing nothing, instead of carrying passengers (Photo: Adam Fagen)
This is a concept that's not well recognized by most US railroads...a number of operators run service only during rush hours, many still don't have weekend service, etc.  This results in equipment and facilities sitting dormant between rush hours, in the evening, over the weekend, doing little to nothing.  The LIRR has much better off-peak service than most systems, but there's still significant room for growth.

According to data reported to the US DOT, the average LIRR train traveled an average of 64,572 miles in revenue service in 2018, which is good by American standards but still very poor when compared to modern regional rail systems.  While that is well above the nationwide average of 40,997 miles in revenue service per year, the most fleet-efficient railroad in the country is Utah's UTA FrontRunner service, where their cars travel about 78,685 miles in revenue service per year.

When you divide that out by the total number of revenue service hours reported for the year, that means each LIRR train car is in service for just about 5.6 hours each day...in other words, they spend more than 18 hours per day (or 77% of their time) sitting around in yards doing nothing or running empty equipment trains, not carrying passengers.

RailroadVehicles avail.
for max svc.
Average
revenue miles
Average daily
hours in service
UTA FrontRunner6978,6856.54
MTA Long Island Rail Road1,03064,5725.58
MTA Metro-North Railroad1,16558,1965.13
SMART1454,7748.60
Caltrain13453,7494.40
NICTD South Shore Line8052,6404.25
Metrolink25852,3773.95
MBTA Commuter Rail48051,1784.72
SEPTA Regional Rail40449,8866.97
NJTransit Rail1,29747,9433.99
Trinity Railway Express3447,8545.94
Tri-Rail8045,0924.26
New Mexico Rail Runner Express3143,5043.18
NCTD Coaster3539,3422.72
Denver RTD6638,8362.94
Metra1,20436,2753.30
Shore Line East/Hartford Line4732,8172.02
Altamont Corridor Express3630,6272.15
MARC Train22728,6732.06
Sounder Commuter Rail8127,5722.56
Northstar Line2424,9921.78
Virginia Railway Express12020,1361.79
SunRail3119,6302.13
Music City Star1513,5461.42
Alaska Railroad9612,0211.22

The railroad that does the best job of keeping its trains on the move and not spending most of the day in yards is SMART in California, which started service in the summer of 2017...their cars are in service for an average of 8.60 hours per day.  If LIRR were that efficient with its fleet, we could either increase service by about 35% per day, or reduce the number of vehicles in the fleet by more than 350 (the LIRR is spending $3.63 million per car for the M-9's, at that costs, this would translate to a $1.32 billion savings in capital costs and $170 million per year in maintenance costs).

I mentioned briefly in last week's piece about sizing a diesel fleet that the LIRR currently carries a large shop margin on their locomotive fleet, in part due to their poor reliability (and that I carried the same margin in the calculations for the new fleet by default).  The LIRR needs roughly 30 DE/DM locomotives for weekday service, and they have a total of 45 on the roster, for a shop margin of 50%.  On summer Fridays, the need rises to about 33 locomotives.  The margin is a bit narrower for the C-3 fleet, with about 113 of the 134 cars needed for typical weekday service (rising to about 121 on Summer Fridays), a shop margin of about 19%.  The railroad also needs a little over 900 of their 1,016 MU cars to mount peak service in electric territory, for a shop margin of about 12%.

The large new Morris Park locomotive shop, being built now
to maintain LIRR's locomotive fleet (Photo: MTA LIRR)
Having a shop margin is important...I'm by no means saying that we should have no spare capacity so that every little mechanical failure means short trains or cancellations, but it reinforces the importance of striking a balance between spare equipment and improving maintenance practices.  The better trains are maintained, the less often they breakdown, and the less need to buy extra equipment to serve as spares.

So how does the LIRR's maintenance spending and results stack up against railroads elsewhere in the United States?

Maintenance costs

When you look at what US railroads spend on maintenance on a per-vehicle basis, it probably won't surprise you to learn that the LIRR spends the most on maintenance per vehicle out of all railroads in the entire country...  The LIRR spent an average of $469,954 per vehicle on maintenance in 2018, which is nearly double the next two railroads on the list, SunRail and LIRR's sibling operated by the same agency, Metro-North.

US commuter railroads spent an average of $192,872 per vehicle on vehicle maintenance in 2018, making LIRR's costs 144% above the national average, and Metro-North's just 26% above average.  The fact that LIRR's maintenance costs are nearly double costs per vehicle at Metro-North reinforces the tremendous efficiency gap between the two MTA railroads.

RailroadVehicles avail.
for max svc.
Maintenance labor
cost per vehicle
Total maintenance
cost per vehicle
MTA Long Island Rail Road1,030$359,039 $469,954
SunRail31n/a$262,598
MTA Metro-North Railroad1,165$180,190 $245,971
MBTA Commuter Rail480n/a$227,558
New Mexico Rail Runner Express31n/a$222,224
SMART14$184,331 $214,480
Caltrain134n/a$211,811
Shore Line East/Hartford Line47n/a$198,504
NJTransit Rail1,297$128,464 $188,990
NICTD South Shore Line80$131,571 $180,023
Trinity Railway Express34$374 $169,449
Metrolink258n/a$167,954
Tri-Rail80$1,150 $165,174
UTA FrontRunner69$73,270 $158,819
Sounder Commuter Rail81$2,178 $151,605
Metra1,204$105,538 $143,161
MARC Train227$4,474 $141,176
Northstar Line24$107,983 $140,422
SEPTA Regional Rail404$106,879 $132,037
NCTD Coaster35$1,714 $125,260
Denver RTD66n/a$117,065
Virginia Railway Express120n/a$109,274
Music City Star15n/a$92,615
Altamont Corridor Express36n/a$92,329
Alaska Railroad96$51,095 $91,310
n/a = no labor breakout costs reported (usually means maintenance is contracted out)

There is obviously significant room for reducing LIRR maintenance costs...there should be a thing called economy of scale...the larger the railroad, the lower the per-unit maintenance costs should be since there is more efficiency with crews, facilities, etc.  One of the nation's smallest railroads, like SunRail, having the high per-vehicle unit costs is somewhat understandable, but the nation's largest shouldn't be so far ahead of the pack.  If the LIRR maintained their equipment at the same cost level as Metro-North, we would save over $231 million per year just in fleet maintenance costs.  If the nation's largest railroad was also the nation's most efficient railroad on maintenance costs, we would save $389 million per year...

For context, all of the 2010 service cuts that the LIRR implemented during the last recession and will likely be looking at again with the ridership downturn following the COVID-19 pandemic (service cuts that included the decimation of off-peak service on the Port Washington Branch, the elimination of weekend service on the West Hempstead Branch and off-season weekend service between Ronkonkoma and Greenport, and many peak trains cut and combined) saved just $7 million per year.

Top dollar = best reliability?

Does the LIRR's extraordinary vehicle maintenance costs at least mean we have the most reliable fleet in the country?  Not really.  Dividing the total number of revenue miles by the total number of mechanical failures reported to the US DOT gives a number that's roughly equivalent to the Mean Distance Between Failure (MDBF) numbers that many railroads report, but not exactly.  Under this metric, the LIRR does not have the best maintained or most reliable fleet in the country, they rank only seventh...behind Metro-North (which spends roughly half as much on maintenance as the LIRR does) and Virginia Railway Express (which is the fourth most efficient railroad in the country for maintenance vehicle costs...).

When you relate the total maintenance costs per vehicle to the average distance a vehicle goes between breakdowns, the LIRR spends roughly $1.19 to keep a train moving for a mile without breaking down.  Again, the LIRR is not matching its title as busiest railroad in the nation with the most cost-efficient railroad in the nation, ranking eleventh, behind Metro-North, VRE, an a number of small railroads.

RailroadTotal
Failures
MtDBFRailroadCost per
breakdown
free mile
Virginia Railway Express3805,440Virginia Railway Express$0.14
SMART1766,833Alaska Railroad$0.16
MTA Metro-North Railroad116584,469SMART$0.28
Alaska Railroad2577,030Metra$0.31
NICTD South Shore Line8526,400NICTD South Shore Line$0.34
Metra96454,948MTA Metro-North Railroad$0.42
MTA Long Island Rail Road168395,886Altamont Corridor Express$0.67
NJTransit Rail375165,819Metrolink$1.02
Metrolink82164,797SEPTA Regional Rail$1.08
Caltrain44163,689NJTransit Rail$1.14
Altamont Corridor Express8137,822MTA Long Island Rail Road$1.19
SEPTA Regional Rail165122,145Caltrain$1.29
Trinity Railway Express14116,218Sounder Commuter Rail$1.36
Sounder Commuter Rail20111,667Trinity Railway Express$1.46
MBTA Commuter Rail27389,983Music City Star$1.82
SunRail876,068MARC Train$1.93
MARC Train8973,132MBTA Commuter Rail$2.53
NM Rail Runner Express2164,220UTA FrontRunner$2.69
UTA FrontRunner9259,013Tri-Rail$3.25
Tri-Rail7150,808SunRail$3.45
Music City Star450,799NM Rail Runner Express$3.46
NCTD Coaster3935,307NCTD Coaster$3.55
Shore Line East/Hartford Line6125,285Shore Line East/Hartford Line$7.85
Denver RTD3736,872Denver RTD$17.04
Northstar Line936,450Northstar Line$21.77

And keep in mind that the number of mechanical failures the LIRR reported to the MTA Board was significantly higher than the number they reported to the US DOT (the figures used here), so in reality, they rank significantly lower on the list.

This is something that the US commuter railroad industry tends to struggle with in general...  When you relate maintenance spending to reliability, there is very little correlation across the country.  Spending more on maintenance does not really tend to yield much in terms of improved fleet reliability, suggesting that this is largely a practice and efficiency issue from system to system.

It likely comes at no surprise to anyone reading that the LIRR spends the most on vehicle maintenance out of any railroad in the United States BY FAR, yet riders get results that are mediocre, at best...  The MTA has a number of years of great financial difficulty ahead of it as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and they will undoubtedly be looking for handouts from the federal government, service cuts to save money, and, of course, additional fare increases to plug the gaping holes in their budget.  As the numbers show, LIRR maintenance value is pretty poor, and as part of the recovery effort the railroad must be challenged to either dramatically reign in these crazy fleet maintenance costs, or dramatically improve fleet reliability and results, so that we can keep our existing cars in service for many more years and get by with much narrower shop margins (reducing the need to purchase extra equipment as spares).  The amount of money the LIRR could save with even tiny economizations in fleet maintenance can easily dwarf the amount they can save in service cuts.  The recovery from the pandemic must include management mounting significant challenges to the status quo, not just cutting service, hiking fares, or looking for more subsidy (so the farepayers and taxpayers bear all of the impacts) and carrying on with business as usual.

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